BlogSeptember 18, 2024Intuition as a professional skill
Over time it has become clear to me that one of the most powerful skills a professional
can develop is intuition.
What prompted this was a short clip of Jim Simons being asked about alpha and the growing
difficulty of generating it, given how many quantitative funds and PhDs now compete for
it. At first glance his explanation seems simple. He defines alpha and talks about the
Medallion fund. Straightforward.
I watched it about twenty times.
There was something underneath it, and that sense — that there is something here and you
should pay attention — is the part I actually want to talk about. What I extracted may
not generalise to anyone else, and that is fine. The point is not my conclusions. The
point is the effort of developing your own.
For what it is worth, my takeaways were secondary to that:
Calmness. He begins answering with a strange serenity, the kind that belongs to
someone who has faced and solved a very large number of problems. It is the tranquility
of a person willing to take all the time necessary to decide, who would then not hesitate
for a second once the moment came.
Time. The list of the best investors does not begin with recent years. Excellence
takes time, which puts the proliferation of new quantitative funds in perspective.
The margins are narrow. Remove the very best performers from any ranking and the
averages move less than you would expect. When it comes to excellence, the distances at
the top are small and hard-won.
Invest in your intuition. It compounds.